Huge boost for Nigel Farage as half of Brits say Reform now the real opposition to Labour
A third of the country say they are now likely to consider voting Reform – more than for any other party
Nigel Farage claimed Reform were the ‘real opposition’ as early as 2024 (Image: AFP via Getty Images)
Nigel Farage went into the 2024 election with the claim that Reform UK was now the “real opposition” party – and today half of Britons agree. The share of the country who see Mr Farage’s party as the main opposition to Labour has soared from 37% in May last year to 49%.
Back in 2024 – days after he stunned the country by announcing he would return to frontline politics and stand in the Essex seat of Clacton – Mr Farage told the Sunday Express: “We’re the real opposition now.”
Ipsos polling reveals just one in five (21%) people consider the Conservatives to be the main opposition, even though the Tories have 116 MPs and Reform boasts just eight. Only 5% of Britons consider the Liberal Democrats or the Green party the main opposition, while 16% say they do not know who holds this role.
And in the latest sign that Reform could lead the next Government, one in three voters say they are likely to consider voting for them – more than for Labour (31%), the Liberal Democrats (29%), the Conservatives (28%), the Greens (26%) and Restore Britain (19%).
When asked what they expect would be the most positive thing if Reform forms the next Government, 35% said “they would get immigration under control’. A quarter think they represent traditional British values, and one in five expects they would bring “real change” to the country and are in touch with what “real people” think.
However, many Britons are concerned at the impact a Reform Government could have one nation, with 43% thinking it would make the country more divided and 41% claiming Mr Farage would be a “bad prime minister”. While 37% think Reform would make public services like the NHS worse, 36% worried there is “not enough talent” for the party to form a competent Government.
Kemi Badenoch is Leader of the Opposition (Image: House of Commons/UK Parliament/PA Wire)
Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Alex Burghart defended Kemi Badenoch’s record as Leader of the Opposition.
He said: “The Conservatives under Kemi have done all the leg work against Keir Starmer and Labour. It’s our hard work that has forced them into u-turn after u-turn and made them publish the Mandelson papers. “Labour and Reform have no plan for our country, we will keep fighting to hold them to account.”
But former Conservative Brexit minister David Jones, who now supports Reform, said: “We are witnessing a once-in-a-century realignment of British politics. For generations, voters opposed to Labour turned to the Conservatives; now, increasingly, they turn to Reform UK. The Conservatives are learning that official opposition status means very little if voters no longer see them as an alternative government. Reform is increasing in popularity by addressing issues that many feel the political establishment has failed to confront, particularly immigration, the cost of living and public accountability. Voters are looking for a genuine, radical alternative, not merely a change of management.”
Reform is seen as the main challenge to Labour in Makerfield (Image: Getty Images)
The polling comes as Reform battles Labour ahead of the the June 18 Makerfield by-election. The latest Survation poll shows 48% of the electorate plan to vote for Labour’s Andy Burnham – who is widely expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if he makes it to Parliament.
Four out of 10 (39%) intend to vote for Reform’s Robert Kenyon, with 8% of respondents saying they would vote for Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd.
A mere 1% intended to vote for the Conservatives’ Michael Winstanley, who polled behind the Liberal Democrats’ Jake Austin (2%) and the Greens’ Sarah Wakefield (8%).
Mr Burnham is fighting to go to Westminster at a time when, according to Ipsos, 67% of Britons think Labour is divided – a higher figure than for the Conservatives (38%), Reform UK (21%), the Greens (17%) and the Lib Dems (13%).
The polling comes on the heels of former PM Sir Tony Blair delivering a scathing critique of the Labour Government.
Keiran Pedley, Ipsos’s director of politics, said: “Given ongoing speculation about the future leadership of the Labour Party – and various essays about the policy direction it should take – it can be of no surprise that the public consider the party to be divided. The saying goes that divided parties lose elections so whoever leads the Labour Party in the long term will hope to shift this perception moving forward.”
