A German far-right party could be closing in on power at the state level for the first time since the Nazi regime’s defeat in World War II 81 years ago.
Polling suggests Alternative for Germany (AfD) is far ahead of its rivals in Saxony‑Anhalt and, crucially, within striking distance of an outright majority that would defeat mainstream parties’ traditional Brandmauer—or “firewall”—against a far-right government.
Germany’s electoral system of proportional representation means that most governments at the national and regional level are coalitions. The “firewall” is an agreement of non‑cooperation in which mainstream parties do not govern with, or rely on votes from, the far right, especially the AfD.
But a theoretical distribution projected by Dawum, a firm which aggregates polling has suggested that the AfD could get an outright majority, eliminating the impact of the firewall to keep the far-right out.
The projection showed the AfD one seat short of the 42 needed for a majority in the northern state’s 83-seat parliament for a September 6 vote. The only viable non-AfD majority would be a three-party alliance of the Christian Democrats, (CDU) the Left (Linke) and the Social Democrats (SPD) delivering 42 seats—just enough to govern, according to the polling.
That razor-thin margin means only a slight shift—well within normal polling variation—could decide the election.
“The likelihood that they get an absolute majority is extremely realistic,” Markus Böckenförde, associate professor of Comparative Constitutional Studies at Central European University told Newsweek Wednesday. “If something special happens, like another terrorist attack, then I would take it for granted (they would win).”
A majority victory in Saxony‑Anhalt would mark the party’s transition from an insurgent force into a governing one.
“Let’s assume for a minute that AFD gets 42 seats, then they have a slim but valid majority to form government,” said Böckenförde.
