Former Greater Manchester mayor’s words could come back to haunt him if he takes over at No 10

Andy Burnham campaigning in the Makerfield by-election

Andy Burnham campaigning in the Makerfield by-election (Image: Getty)

On October 20, 2022, Conservative prime minister Liz Truss stood outside Downing Street to announce her resignation. But we still had a Tory government. Her decision to quit simply meant the Conservatives would choose a new leader, who would take over as prime minister.

Some people, however, felt the British public should be given a say – including one Andy Burnham, who posted a simple demand on social media: “#GeneralElectionNow.”

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He wasn’t alone. Angela Rayner, now a Burnham supporter, took to her soapbox once Rishi Sunak had been appointed as the new prime minister to complain on October 24, 2022: “Rishi Sunak has been crowned by Tory MPs. It’s a coronation, not an election.” She added: “He has no mandate and the British people have had no say. #GeneralElectionNow.”

Now the shoe is on the other foot, and Mr Burnham is set to become prime minister without consulting the British public. It even looks, although we still don’t know for sure, that he will do it with a coronation rather than a contest.

But this time, neither Mr Burnham nor Ms Rayner is demanding a general election. It seems the rules are different when a Labour government changes prime minister.

There is no need, to be fair, for Andy Burnham to go to the country. We elect a Parliament, not a prime minister.

If we’re going to call out Mr Burnham and Mr Rayner for their inconsistency, then we have to be consistent ourselves – and that means acknowledging that they were wrong in 2022 but right today if they believe, as they clearly do, that there’s nothing to stop Mr Burnham walking into No 10.

Despite this, our future prime minister may find himself under pressure to hold an election soon.

Labour MP Mike Tapp stuck his neck out and said, shortly before Keir Starmer resigned, that there should be a general election if a new prime minister takes over.

Polling shows voters agree. An Ipsos survey found just over half of voters, 55%, would support a law that requires a general election to be called automatically if the party in power switches its leader during a parliamentary term. That would apply to any party, but given that the survey took place between Monday, June 22 (when Starmer resigned) and June 24, it’s safe to assume voters had Sir Keir and Andy Burnham on their minds.

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There is growing speculation that Mr Burnham could actually give the public what they want and hold an early ballot – if not immediately, then at least much sooner than mid-2029, when the next election is required.

It’s thought that Reform would struggle with a snap election. Party leader Nigel Farage is still building a party machine. The experience in the recent Makerfield by-election, where candidate Rob Kenyon was appointed only for it to emerge he had made controversial comments on social media, suggests Reform’s candidate recruitment and vetting system needs further work. Mr Farage has also not yet figured out how to see off the threat from Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, could – maybe – become a bigger threat to Labour as time goes by. Polling suggests party leader Kemi Badenoch is impressing voters, but that hasn’t translated into a surge of support for her party. The public still associates the Tories with the chaos of their final years in office.

But Mrs Badenoch is playing the long game. She has always known it would take time to revive the Tory brand. Mr Burnham might decide his best bet is to refuse to give her that time, and go to the nation now.

There’s one snag. Many Labour MPs would hate it.

Right now, Labour holds 403 of the 650 seats in the Commons. If a general election were held, Labour might win it – but there would undoubtedly be fewer Labour MPs afterwards. From Mr Burnham’s point of view, a smaller minority might be a price well worth paying in return for a personal mandate to enact his policies. But Labour colleagues who face being booted out of Parliament will feel very differently.