Andy Burnham has a 10-point lead over Reform UK in the Makerfield by-election, according to a new poll. The Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, who is eyeing a return to Westminster to challenge Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership, takes 49% of the vote in the survey ahead of the crunch ballot.

Reform’s local plumber candidate Robert Kenyon is in second place with 39%. Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party comes third with 8% in the Survation poll of 518 voters.

Meanwhile, the Greens take 2% and the Lib Dems and Tories are both on 1%.

The by-election is expected to be a two-horse race between Labour and Reform.

The Greater Manchester Mayor admitted on last night’s Question Time that he would make a bid for the Labour leadership if he wins the by-election.

Asked about his intentions if he wins the seat, he said: “I’m not somebody who gets ahead of myself. I can’t do anything unless I’m lucky enough to get the support of people here.

“But if I get your support, I would seek to represent you at the highest possible level and give this constituency maximum power and influence.

“I think Wes Streeting seems to have launched a leadership contest, so if that is running, I would seek to join it. But I’d have to persuade members of the Parliamentary Labour Party to do the same.”

Mr Burnham has previously promised a vote for him in Makerfield would be a vote to “change Labour” but had not explicitly said he would launch a leadership bid.

Downing Street insisted that the PM “will not walk away” after Mr Burnham’s BBC appearance last night.