Nigel Farage’s chances of becoming PM are surging with a bombshell poll showing Reform “is eating the Tories for breakfast”, polling guru Sir John Curtice has said. Reform UK’s surge is no mere protest vote but a deeply ideological movement rooted in cultural conservatism, according to the major new NatCen British Social Attitudes survey.

Reform backers are notably unhappy with Britain’s direction – 60% are “very dissatisfied” with the NHS, compared to 51% of the public, 75% say Britain’s system of governing needs “a great deal” of improvement — nearly double the 39% national figure and 27% report struggling on their household income, above the 22% average.

However, the survey makes clear that these grievances alone do not explain the party’s rise. Reform voters stand out dramatically on cultural questions.

Nearly three-quarters (75%) of Reform supporters believe migrants undermine Britain’s culture, compared to just 35% of the general public. Meanwhile, 88% say attempts to give equal opportunities to transgender people have “gone too far”, against 48% nationally. And 78% believe benefits for the unemployed are too high, versus 60% overall.

Support for Reform hits 49% among those who would vote to stay out of the EU, but collapses to 9% among those wanting to rejoin. The party’s voter profile mirrors the 2016 Leave coalition almost exactly: stronger among men (28% vs 19% women), those aged 55 and over (27% vs 18% for 18-34), and people whose highest qualification is below A-level (40% vs 9% of graduates).

On economic issues, Reform supporters are only modestly to the right of the public. For example, they are just 10 points less likely than average to see significant child poverty in Britain.

Sir John Curtice, senior research fellow at NatCen and co-author of the survey, said the findings destroy the narrative that Reform is simply a vehicle for protest, suggesting that the party had been eating the Tories for “breakfast, lunch and dinner” when it came to peeling off Right-leaning voters.

Sir John said: “Voters haven’t swung towards Reform simply because of dissatisfaction with ailing public services and economic stagnation. The party’s supporters are deeply ideological and have a level of emotional attachment that neither Labour nor the Conservatives have managed to inspire in voters for decades.”

Sir John added: “The roots of the party’s support lie in the vote to Leave the EU, a vote that was motivated by cultural questions of national identity, immigration, and pride in British history. Reform has effectively absorbed the coalition of voters that voted in 2019 for Boris Johnson to ‘get Brexit done.’”

The veteran pollster warned that the party’s prospects depend not just on fixing the NHS and the economy but also on continuing to champion socially conservative values.

The survey also exposes a sharp collapse in public confidence in higher education. The proportion of Britons who believe a degree is not worth the time and money has more than doubled to a record 34% in 2025, up from 14% in 2005. Only 36% now think university graduates end up “a lot better off” financially in the long run, down from 50% two decades ago.

Public opinion is evenly divided on whether there are too many graduates in the economy. Graduates themselves are more likely than non-graduates to believe there are too many.

Alex Scholes, research director at NatCen and BSA co-author, said universities face immense financial pressure amid debates over student loan fairness and the impact of AI on jobs.

The British Social Attitudes survey was conducted between August 26 and October 6, 2025, using a random sample of 4,656 adults across the UK.

The findings paint a picture of a politically realigned Britain where cultural attitudes on identity, immigration and social change — more than pure economic discontent — are powering Reform’s advance.

With the party apparently consolidating the socially conservative vote that once delivered Conservative majorities, Mr Farage’s path toward Downing Street may be more credible than ever.