June 18 will be a day that affects British history. And a surprising figure could play a key role. Rupert Lowe, leader of a political party with exactly one MP, Mr Lowe himself, could decide the outcome.

The Makerfield by-election takes place on June 18, and this is when we will know whether Andy Burnham returns to Parliament as an MP or not. If he fails here, the shine will come off him. It’s a north west seat, and that’s where Mr Burnham is meant to be popular. The constituency has had a Labour MP since it was created in 1983. Things are bad for Labour at the moment, and by-elections are always unpredictable, but even so – if Mr Burnham loses, he’ll no longer look like the man who can save the Labour Party.

But if he wins, it’s a very different story. Mr Burnham will have defeated Reform, the biggest challengers to Labour in the seat, and given Labour MPs hope that maybe he holds the key to beating Nigel Farage‘s party in other parts of the country too.

It seems clear that he would then launch a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer (perhaps not immediately, but before the next general election). Mr Burnham could well end up becoming Prime Minister.

So this by-election isn’t just about Makerfield. It affects the entire country.

Nigel Farage and Reform UK, of course, hope to pull off a stunning victory and win the seat for themselves, just as they did in Runcorn and Helsby, also in the North West, in a by-election last year.

But Mr Farage has a problem. The Right-wing vote is split – not between Reform the Conservatives, who are nowhere to be seen, but between his party and something called Restore Britain.

Restore Britain is led by Rupert Lowe, a former Reform MP who had a spectacular falling out with Mr Farage. Mr Lowe was accused by his old party of bullying, which he staunchly denies, and says he was effectively forced out of Reform because he was a “tall poppy” who threatened to overshadow the leader. He went on to found his own rival party.

Mr Lowe complains that the mainstream media ignore him, and there’s some truth in this. Nigel Farage was treated as a minor celebrity for decades, even when he kept on standing for Parliament and losing, while Mr Lowe gets nothing like the same level of attention.

But it’s a different matter on social media, where an army of internet warriors have been spreading the word about his plan to reverse mass migration, and abolish the asylum system entirely, on TikTok, Facebook and similar platforms.

Their efforts have paid off. Mr Lowe is nowhere near becoming Prime Minister. But his party enjoys a surprising level of support.

A poll by Survation found 43% of Makerfield voters plan to back Andy Burnham (if they will vote at all), while 40% will vote Reform and 7% will back the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd.

It puts Mr Burnham in the lead. It also suggests the Reform and Restore votes combined, at 47%, are higher than the Labour vote.

Reform and Restore would probably deny this, because they hate each other, but they are extremely similar. If only one existed, there’s a good chance it would get the entire 47%, and win.

Of course, opinion polls are not always right and we can only guess what will really happen when the by-election takes place.

But there’s a real chance that Nigel Farage’s bitter feud with Rupert Lowe could hand victory to Labour. And that really would change history.